Homo Technologist

 

Geologists tell us they detect life’s presence in rocks that are 3 billion years old.  From 3 billion years ago until now, evidence shows life evolved new forms of increasing complexity and capability.  The progress toward complexity was generated by random mutation. Life with beneficial mutations survival and procreation; life detrimental mutations died out.  For billions of years slow biological processes were the only available path for advancement.  This path of evolving complexity and capability ultimately led to the human brain.  First the human brain evolved the ability to exploit matter to serve human needs.

 

Near the birth of humanity, some ancient genius learned to control fire: technology was born.  Fire kept the family warm and cooked food.  Cooking made the nutrients in food more available to the body and reduced the amount of time needed to collect food.  Coeval with mastery of fire, language was created.  Language allowed the communication between humans.  The communication of thoughts made astounding changes in humanities capability to survive.  Cooperating minds produced history, legends, myths and poetry; language produced art.  Twenty to thirty centuries ago humans decorated cave walls with pictures of the animals that shared the world with humanity. 

 

Humanity continually enhanced its capability to take physical things from the environment and shape them into objects that served human purposes.  With language, these skills were passed on to the next generation.  With the ability to convey knowledge, we created and improved stone tools, clothing, and clay pottery.  Further creativity gave us copper, bronze and then iron.  By domestication, food crops and animal husbandry were invented and developed.  With enhanced food production came cities.  Mathematics was developed to keep track of the growing civilizations. 

 

Humanity discovered it could exploit energy from animals, wind and falling water and use it to amplify humanity’s energy.  Recruiting non-human energy allowed a few to accomplish tasks that had previously taken many to complete.  Up to this point in time, most could live off the land and could prosper by modifying and shaping things found in nature: technology continued its advance.  

 

Today, by applying intelligence to develop new things, humanity is no longer just Homo Sapiens, but new form, Homo Technologist.  The objective of technology is to improve the quality of life.  Technologies grew and expanded to greater capability.  Today, Homo Technologist creates things that are unknown in nature and bends them to our will.  Synthetic fibers, plastics, airplanes, automobiles and computers are the result of this creativity.  To achieve these ends Homo Technologist enlisted the aid of new energy sources.  

 

Early inhabitants of Wales heated with coal, a fossil fuel.  Later, Roman soldiers used coal to heat their baths.  These uses of fossil fuels were insignificant compared to current use; there were few people; their activity had little influence on the environment.  Before 1800, most energy came from human labor, animal labor, wind, falling water or combustion of wood.  Some energy and lamplight was obtained by burning fats and oils extracted from plants and animals.  Natural processes renewed all of these sources with energy from the sun. 

 

After 1800, things began to change.  Advancing technology demanded increasing amounts energy and new energy forms.  The distillation of coal produced oil (coal oil) suitable for lamps.  The new railroad industry used coal to fuel its engines.  Coal and coke were essential for the burgeoning iron and steel industry.  Fossil fuel energy became a potent amplifier of human capacity to work.  Energy from fossil fuels enabled the advance of technology.

 

Hamilton McClintock collected oil that seeped from the ground in Eastern Pennsylvania.  He used it for lighting, as a lubricant and even as a medicine.  In 1859, Colonel Edwin Drake sank the first well on Oil Creek in Pennsylvania near McClintock’s seep.  [1]  This rock oil (petroleum) became the basis for the oil-powered sector of the energy system.  The energy technology that exploited fossil fuels proliferated.  The growing use of coal and oil inaugurated the dawn of the age of fossil fuels.  Now much of humanity’s amplifying energy comes from the combustion of fossil fuels.  Unlike the energy sources used before 1800, the fossil fuels are not renewable but are a finite resource.

 

The fossil fuel industry just happened; no planning or study preceded its implementation.  No one pondered its long-term effects.  Compared to today, the nineteenth century population was small.  At the beginning, no one could envision that fossil fuel combustion could affect the environment of the entire planet.  Fossil fuel energy use per person was modest.  Slow geological and biological processes repaired some of the environmental damage but damage accumulated.  The industrial waste products were spewed into the air, flushed into the rivers or carted out to unexploited land and dumped.  The carbon dioxide from fossil fuel combustion was vented into the atmosphere.  The world seemed huge and much of it was empty of humanity. 

 

The use of fossil fuels greatly amplified human capability to do work that produced things.  More production with fewer human hours improved the standard of living of all and fostered a growth in population.  Today, in Homo Technologist’s world of developed nations, the use of non-human energy allows the average citizen to live better than medieval kings.  Kings lacked indoor plumbing, automatic heating-and-cooling, and refrigerators to store food.  Kings did not have comfortable methods to travel to the next town in a few hours or to the other side of the world in a day.  Kings could not entertain themselves or their guests with radio, sound recording, television or movies.  Even from their thrones, medieval kings could only talk to those who shared the throne room.  Today, from many locations, cell phones, largely powered by fossil fuels, allow instant contact with most of the world.   

 

Today individual homo technologists cannot live off the land.  We lack the knowledge and the tools.  Advanced agricultural technology made it possible for a few percent of the population to feed the remainder.  Medical technology has dramatically reduced the anguish of disease and doubled the average life span.  Technology has permitted humanity to multiply to over 6.5 billion individuals.  The enormous population growth was wrought by the productivity engendered by non-human energy.  Humanity has become utterly dependent on the benefits of technology driven by non-human energy; technology is now mandatory for earth to sustain these billions.  In the future an even greater application of technology is required for progress.  Unfortunately, the ability and the capacity to create also include a risk.  As the result of unanticipated effects, life on the earth and technology are no longer harmonious.  It has become possible for technology to interfere in earth’s ability to sustain life.  At the beginning of the twentieth-century, a few people began to notice the threat and ponder the long-term consequences of fossil fuel use. 

 

In 1908, a Swedish chemist, Svante Arrhenius, observed that if humanity continued to burn fossil fuels the carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere would eventually increase the temperature of the earth.  Arrhenius’ reasoning was simple.  Carbon dioxide is opaque to radiation at the wavelengths where earth eliminates heat.  Carbon dioxide acts as a sweater for the earth.  When you put on a sweater initially you feel no difference, but in time, you will feel warmer.  For you, with a sweater, the time to warm is only minutes.  The time necessary for the carbon dioxide sweater to warm the earth is uncertain.  No one disputed Dr. Arrhenius’ calculations.  In his time, the population of the world was less than a billion.  The carbon dioxide generated from burgeoning electric power plants, automobiles and airplanes was in the future.  Arrhenius and his contemporaries assumed that a consequential rise in temperature would take many thousands of years. 

 

In the nineteen fifties, in an effort to probe the significance of Dr. Arrhenius’ speculations, Dr. Charles D. Keeling started measuring the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere.  He picked Hawaii for his measurements because it was far from any industry, concentration of people or vegetation.  In the summer, the concentration of carbon dioxide decreases as distant vegetation consumed carbon dioxide during photosynthesis.  The carbon dioxide concentration reaches a high point in the winter when decay is completed.  Dr. Keeling followed the average carbon dioxide concentration level day by day; it was increasing.  In 1958 the average carbon dioxide level was 315 parts per million.  In 2006 it had increased to 385 parts per million.  The meaning of Dr. Keeling’s data is clear; the carbon dioxide concentration has increase 22% between 1957 and 2006.  Analysis of Antarctic and Greenland ice cores revealed that, before 1800, prior to the start of the fossil fuel age, the carbon dioxide concentration was about 275 parts per million.  Humanity’s use of fossil fuels has apparently increased the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere by 40% since 1800.  Forty percent is a large change in a significant component of the atmosphere.  This increase in the carbon dioxide level will produce an increase in the temperature of the earth.  [2]  The temperature increase, caused by the buildup of carbon dioxide from the combustion of oil and coal, is global warming.    

 

To evaluate the long-range potential for continued oil production Shell oil geologist M. King Hubbert developed a technique for analyzing oil reserves.  He found that oil fields were being depleted.  He predicted that production in the lower 48 states would peak about 1970 and then decline.  In the fifties, when he published his work, they laughed at him, but he was correct.  United States oil production in the 48 states peaked in 1971 and has declined ever since.  Today, using methods similar to those used by Dr. Hubbert, others have calculated that world wide oil production will peak some time between 2005 and 2015.  [3]  After the peak in oil production, the world may be tempted to use lower grade fuels, such as coal, shale-oil and tar sands.  Per unit of energy, these low-grade fossil fuels will cause more extraction damage and produce more carbon dioxide than does the use of oil. 

 

In the twenty first century, China and India will aggressively expand their industries and raise their living standards.  They will burn coal to generate electricity, and soon they will operate as many automobiles as American and Europeans.  This will increase the growth in carbon dioxide emissions.  The carbon dioxide will drive an inexorable increase in the temperature.  The resulting global warming will melt glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica.  As the glaciers melt, the sea levels will rise.  Rising seas will destroy all coastal cities and inundate indispensable farmland.  Billions of people will be forced to relocate.  Much of humanities effort will be preempted to ameliorate the problems from increasing temperatures and changing climate.  In the last fifty years, it has become clear, proliferating humanity burning fossil fuels has damaged the world environment.  [4]

 

The burning is also exhausting the supply of chemicals found in fossil fuels.  These chemicals have great future value as feedstock for plastics, rubber, drugs, synthetic fibers and pharmaceuticals.  The projected growth in population and continued fossil energy use will exhaust earth's regenerative capability with dire effects for all life.  If we continue on the current path, the only point worth a debate is when these problems will overwhelm our ability to cope.  The huge advantages in the use of energy have blinded humanity to possible harm from fossil fuel use.  Today our dependence on fossil fuel energy technology poses a threat; yet, energy is crucial to achieve a high standard of living. 

 

With the birth of Homo Technologist, the twentieth century passes into history as the century that changed the earth.  In the twenty first century, humanity will choose whether these changes will preserve or destroy.  We must inspire humanity to embark on a course that will preserve the planet for all life.  It is immoral to say, “These effects will not occur for hundreds of years”.  One hundred more years of growing fossil fuel consumption will imperil life, possibly by making earth uninhabitable for many current species, conceivably including humanity. 

 

Governments, at all levels, observe that air pollution from fossil fuels is an international problem.  All nations must cooperate in seeking solutions.  The barrier to change is with the precedent established by the historical selection of methods and systems.  The established energy industry thinks of itself as absolutely and permanently essential.  Our governments, knowing no other solution, concur with industry. 

 

We must be to convince governments and industries that change is possible.  We must cooperate to replace our impromptu fossil fuel system with a new energy technology based on excellent science and engineering that takes full account of the needs of all life.  The new energy technology must be to serve us today and protect future generations.

 

A new energy system must have the potential to provide all of humanity with plentiful energy for hundreds of years without damage to the environment.  It must be easily used by all nations, from the least to the most developed.  It must reduce international tensions arising from competition over fossil fuel reserves.  The survival of humanity will likely depend on how soon and how boldly we act.  We need to follow the advice of Sir Crispin Tickell, former British Ambassador to the United Nations, when he said, "Scientists (and the rest of us) should be much braver.  Caution, in any case, may in reality be recklessness.  We must always look at the cost of doing nothing." [5]

 

To achieve benign energy systems humanity must work to improve the efficiency of current energy use.  Every bit of energy we save performs as if it were new, environmentally harmless energy.  However, efficiency and conservation are not enough.  Valuable they are: but these methods will not eliminate the combustion of fossil fuels.   

 

Where practical, humanity must harvest all the renewable energy possible but renewable energy has a down side.  Renewable energy is unreliable in both time and space.  Harvesting renewable energy can also damage the environment.  For example, wind is a source of renewable electric energy, but windmills kill birds and bats.  [6]  Large scale harvesting of the power of falling water by hydroelectric dams upset the environment of rivers both up and down stream from the dam.  [7]  Compared to wind or solar, hydroelectric energy is quite reliable.  Unfortunately, today the most desirable places for harvesting hydroelectric energy are already exploited. 

 

In the United States, the best places to harvest wind are in the western Great Plains.  However, this location is far from the main energy markets.  During long periods without wind, no energy can be harvested.  At best, solar energy is only available half the time.  In winter, the most heavily populated section of the northern hemisphere receives little direct sunlight.  As the result of the deficiencies of renewables, we can count on them for only a portion of our future energy needs.  Some type of base-load energy source will be required. 

 

Fission nuclear energy (uranium based) does not emit carbon dioxide and might serve as the base-load energy source.  Fission’s radioactive waste is troubling because it remains hazardous for thousands of years.  No disposal method is available that satisfies all critics.  To achieve a long system operational lifetime breeder reactors are required.  Breeder reactors require a reprocessing industry to recover the fuel from the exhausted reactor fuel rods.  With breeder reactors, a large amount of enriched uranium and plutonium must be shipped from reprocessing facilities to utility reactors.  The commercial availability of large amounts of these materials increases the potential for nuclear weapons proliferation.  Because of the waste and potential for weapons proliferation, fission energy cannot easily serve as the energy source to eliminate the use of fossil fuels.  

 

Fusion nuclear energy (Thermonuclear Energy) can produce energy little radioactive waste or carbon dioxide, but no utility reactors exist.  Critics say that for 50 years fusion reactors have been just around the corner, yet we have no utility fusion reactor.  While it is true that fusion research has been ongoing since the nineteen fifties there has never been a dedicated engineering push to build a utility reactor.  past fusion research were pure science and the programs were purposely configured not to design a utility reactor.  It appears the intent was to provide a learning environment for future Doctors of Physics. 

 

Today several nations are funding the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) program.  You can tell from the word “Experimental” in its name that it will not lead to a utility reactor.  Sir David King, the United Kingdom’s chief science advisor has strongly supported this effort as a way to aid in addressing the threat of global warming.  [8]  While ITER is a worthwhile program, we should embark on an engineering program configured to produce a utility reactor.  A program with firm purpose, similar to that applied to the Apollo Man on the Moon program, will produce a utility fusion reactor in less than 10 years. 

 

Homo Technologist must implement an energy system that utilizes no fossil fuels.  An energy system based on renewable energy and fusion reactors has been proposed.  [9]  If implemented this system would stop the use of fossil fuels and launch an entirely new energy infrastructure.  Economist Joseph Schumpeter makes convincing arguments that new products and innovation are the driving force of an expanding economy.  [10]  Thus, nations that undertake implementation of an advanced energy system will be gifted with a mammoth surge of economic activity.  This economic surge will be similar to those engendered during the 20^th century by the development of automobiles, of computers, and from the space program. 

 

The critics will argue that implementation of a fossil fuel free energy system will cause disruption of current industries.  The critics are correct.  Fifty years from the start of the implementation, the fossil fuel industry will no longer exist in its current form.  This is how a free society and capitalism work; businesses that produce obsolete products fade away.  Look at the companies that have flourished in the twenty-century but no longer exist.  Coal fired railroad steam engine manufacturers faded about 1940.  About ten years later electric streetcar and trackless trolley manufacturers faded.  In the fifties businesses that offered home delivery of milk, ice and bread disappeared.  Vacuum tube electronics started in the twenties and vanished about 1980.  Vinyl music recordings started in the twenties and went out of business in the eighties.  We are at the start of the elimination of the cathode ray tube for television and computer monitors.  Silver-based photographic film is being replaced with digital technology.  The new fossil fuel free energy system will take 20 to 30 years to complete.  The current energy businesses will have 2 to 3 decades to adjust. 

 

The critics will complain that the financial structures, worldwide society, and the balance of power among nations will be disturbed.  The critics will say that the costs will be large.  Again, the critics are correct.  The alternative to these scripted disruptions will be disagreeable and possibly devastating.  The involuntary unscripted disruptions will involve the same or greater levels of anxiety and cost.  These disruptions will be driven by environmental degradation, escalating energy prices and international conflict over dwindling reserves.  When the disruptions arrive, the world’s ability to respond will be weakened by the very deteriorating conditions we need to correct.  However, if we accept the scripted disruption and costs associated with implementation of this plan it will be accompanied by certain knowledge that we will have an energy system that will not harm the earth.

 

Professor Bjǿrn Lomborg attempts to debunk a number of the threats touted by the environmentalist communities in his book "The Skeptical Environmentalist".  [11]  Even Professor Lomborg finds global warming a threat.  He estimates that the world will spend $500 billion per year after 2020 countering the effects of warming.  These costs will include activities such as moving people from low-lying seacoast areas and reconstituting farming activities hundreds of miles further north.  There will also be problems with tropical diseases that will move further north.  Lomborg says there is little that can be done to counter the warming as long as we continue the use of fossil fuels.  To counter the worst of global warming we need to implement an environmentally benign energy system well before 2050.  If we do this the weather will be warmer and more erratic but the seas will stop rising. 

 

The critics will also say that the existing "political/economic system" cannot accommodate this level of change.  In this, the critics are wrong.  We are the "system" and this criticism is only an excuse for inaction. 

 

Homo Technologist must be press governments to implement development of a new energy system as soon as possible.  We owe all future generations action in our time so that life’s can move toward greater creativity and complexity and can continue without a hiatus. 

 

It is the first week fo August, 2007 and Congress is trying to pass an energy bill.  As is so common these days, the parties do not know how to compromise.  Once upon a time The Republicans and the Democrats worked together to generate a common plan that both sides could agree with.  It the current era Mr. Bush with his notion that GOD is advising him, he has lead the Republicans in congress to become true belivers.  The democrats come up with a plan that should satisy many of the republican desires.  WHEN THE REPUBLICANS HAVE SQUEZED A FEW COMPROMISES OUT OUT THE DEMOCRATS, THEY THEN INSIST THAT ONLY THEIR IDEA ARE PERFECT AND THEY UNWILL COMPROMISE!!  This approach to National Governance can not be good for the country. 

 

I think that we should wright our senators and representatives an plea with them to consider the country first, and not their parties.